The All Day Marketplace opened around 1pm Eastern Time on Wednesday and we have seen a return to “Early” Top Shot Marketplace Days of 2021 where prices and theories rise and fall with little more than wild speculation behind them. Being active in the Own the Moment Discord and other Discords you trust is a major benefit during these early stages, as bouncing ideas off those you respect will help you feel more confident in your approach. While the rollout wasn’t without some hiccups, one thing I liked from Dapper was tweeting out a link to a blog post as a reminder about the relative supply available on the marketplace.

Another way to keep an eye on circulation is using OTM’s Circulation tool to see just how much of the total supply is in circulation. As you can see the narrative of the four badge Ben Skowronek moment has caused quite the inflation given the limited moments (2%) in circulation. The price has already come down since this screenshot was taken and I would expect that decline to continue in the coming hours and days.

Using the Tools

OTM is proud to have all the tools you need to help make strategic purchases whether you want to stack a certain set or find an individual moment that you want to go all in on. Sorting by badges allows you to compare apples to apples to see which rookie year or championship year moments the market likes or dislikes. Some key sorting tools that I think are underrated are the 4 hour price change compared to the 24 hour price change to see if the moment is leveling off after the turbulent start to the marketplace. Another key metric is the % listed which will show you a more accurate representation of the moments in the marketplace. Finally, all you Quants out there don’t forget about exporting the data to Excel to find some hidden value.

Overall Market Trends

So ultimately, what have we seen so far with various player valuations? Well – pretty much what you’d expect if you’d read Ryan Reynolds’ article – at least, relative to each other. While it’s far too early to know where overall price points will settle for different moments and tiers, what we can compare today is how individual moments are being valued relative to other moments on the site. There’s a lot of nuance to analysis at this stage, in large part because of the low circulation counts and low overall volumes, but we wanted to take a look at it anyways so we tried to do just that. Using the data extract from the OTM site, we looked at all Rare and Common tier moments with at least 40% of their supply in circulation, and then looked at the most expensive moments to provide a little breakdown. This is not perfect – 40% is still very different than 87%+ circulation count, and we’re comparing them here as if they were the same. But we wanted to try to balance getting a decent sample and looking at moments that had a decent supply in-market.

What we found was… basically what you would have expected. When you look at the Rare tier, you see the following breakdown of moments out of the top 20 with the highest low ask:

6 QBs
10 WRs, of which 4 are rookies (with three of those being different Ja’Marr Chase moments)
2 Team melts, including the Super Bowl champion Rams
1 TE – Travis Kelce, obviously
1 RB – Najee Harris, a rookie

The list is topped by Tom Brady (GOAT), Ja’Marr Chase (rookie WR), Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow – pretty much exactly what’d you expect, especially considering Brady’s retirement means this could be his only Rare moment. We are seeing similar trends to the physical card market with QBs and WRs being significantly more valued than other positions, and rookies carrying a premium. This trend is further reinforced when you look at the 15 Rare moments with the lowest asking price where you see the opposite story – more than half (8) are defensive players, 2 are team melts, only 5 are RBs or WRs, and zero are QBs.

You see a similar story when you look at the Common tier moments – out of the top 25 moments with the highest low ask, we see the following breakdown:

14 QBs, including 4 rookie QBs (3 of which are Mac Jones)
7 WRs, including 2 rookie Ja’Marr Chase moments
1 TE (Gronk)
2 DL – Aaron Donald and TJ Watt, two of the best in the game
1 K – rookie Evan McPherson

In both the Rare and Common tier analyses above, we’re seeing Tom Brady and Ja’Marr Chase top the lists with Brady’s moments an order of magnitude above everyone else. Chase is seeing the second highest price for the low-ask in both tiers, despite the fact that he has multiple moments in both the Rare and Common tier. Overall, the desire for star QBs, superstar WRs, and a strong bias towards rookies is playing out exactly as expected on the first day of marketplace action.

If I Were Buying Today

While I don’t plan on making any purchases today (and I don’t own any of these moments so I’m not pumping my bags) I have included three moments at different price points that I would consider purchasing. First and foremost, I am willing to hold these moments for years if need be as I wouldn’t be shocked to see prices drop (more on that later).

The Tom Brady moment is self explanatory as it is likely his last moment in the NFL. We see the differentiated price on that moment vs. basically everything else today, but most of the supply for that moment is in circulation so we wouldn’t expect a massive influx to drive down the price.
The Ja’Marr Chase Super Bowl moment is a bit more reasonably priced, getting the Rookie of the Year in the Super Bowl in the first year of All Day is a combination that can’t be repeated. Then given Chase’s career upside this moment is a solid bet long term.
Finally, Andrew Whitworth’s moment only has 8% listed but given the fact that his official retirement is likely coming in a matter of weeks this moment could see a significant bump in the short term. Long term, even for a linemen, this moment has potential as the 2021 Walter Payton Man of the Year has become a league favorite recently and could make a case for Canton in a decade or so.

Moving Forward

I am not making many major purchases until Dapper gives us a roadmap for utility for current moments and what to expect for Series 2. I do think there will be a potential buying opportunity in the near term (~2-5 weeks) as long as you are willing to hold the moments through football season this fall. I imagine this opportunity will arise as the average user becomes aware of the circulation situation coupled with the likely falling prices. Panic selling was a staple of Top Shot last Spring and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reappear this Spring with All Day. The saying goes “Happiness is reality minus expectations” and I think you’ll be happy with your All Day purchases if you don’t expect a short term profit. Let us know which moment you have your eyes on!