At long last, the NFL ALL DAY Marketplace is live. The highly anticipated Dapper Labs counterpart to NBA Top Shot dropped its first packs in early December, gradually opening the beta over the ensuing weeks. This week, the Marketplace opened, finally allowing users the buy and sell Moments. Like many products in beta, there were some early hiccups and delays but hey, that’s what beta is for. The opening of the Marketplace marked the beginning of “price discovery”, the frenetic time when users try to figure out what their assets are actually worth. Price discovery is inherently volatile, which can lead to major opportunities for savvy users, but also presents the potential for severely underpricing Moments or paying inflated prices during an initial rush. In this article we’ll delve into some analysis regarding pricing, initial transactions, and expectations going forward.

The Marketplace

At first glance, ALL DAY’s Marketplace looks very similar to the early iterations of Top Shot’s Marketplace, which makes sense. Whereas Top Shot’s Marketplace is now filled with data and graphics, perhaps to an excessive extent, ALL DAY’s is much simpler. Each Moment listed comes with a brief explanation of the play, a summary of listings that can be sorted by price and serial number, and a breakdown of recent purchases. It may not stand out, but you can also find the number of individual Moments still remaining in packs, which is actually an extremely important variable to take stock of and something we made sure to highlight in our ALL DAY Marketplace tools.

While the layout of the Marketplace is fairly basic at this time, it’s likely that it will continue to evolve, especially if variables like Challenges are added to the equation.

The Market

Alright, let’s get into the meat of things and start taking a look at the market as a whole. Like Top Shot, Moments are designated a specific rarity tier – Common, Rare, Legendary, and Ultimate. Each tier has several different sets, with Commons currently coming in mint sizes ranging from 6,000 – 10,000, Rares ranging from 499 – 1,200, Legendaries ranging from 29 – 59. Ultimates are the rarest of all, 1-of-1 NFTs, and have not yet been circulated. Currently, 472 individual Moments have been minted and circulated, while another 376 have been minted but are not yet circulated, many of them Ultimates.

We’ve discussed the importance of understanding current circulation, both in some of our previous articles and tweets, but I want to continue to stress this variable’s importance as it greatly impacts price expectations. Looking strictly at the Common tier, there are a few things that immediately jump out:

131 of the 253 minted Common Moments have a current circulation under 14%
This means that 51.7% of all existing Common Moments are going to see a ton of supply come online in the future
For example, only 174 of the 8,000 Michael Pittman Jr. Moments are currently owned – the other 7,826 will be made available at some point
These uncirculated Moments will not drop all at once, but will likely be dropped over the course of many drops in an attempt to avert a supply flood

So far, this Moment has seen 25 sales since the Marketplace went live, ranging from $30 – $70. While we love Pittman, buying at this price is likely a very risky endeavor as the minimum ask will surely drop with more supply coming to the market. Being aware of these metrics can help users time purchases accordingly, and also makes for a better, more sustainable experience. Purchasing Moments at an inflated price point results in discontent from collectors. Rather than having a bunch of purchases made at unsustainably high prices (especially as the platform hasn’t been widely marketed or made available to the general public just yet) only for an ensuing price depression does nothing but leave a bad taste in collector’s mouths, making them less likely to engage going forward. The Taysom Hill Rare is a good example of what can happen when your FOMO into something – the first purchase was for $999 for serial #255, and no other purchase has exceeded $200, with a current low ask of $120. With that in mind, we want to make sure our subscribers are educated on the market dynamics.

ALL DAY S1 vs Top Shot S1

It’s true that there is no telling what will happen to the market as marketing efforts increase and the userbase grows. We’ve seen a lot of speculation that these prices will rival Top Shot’s S1, and while that is certainly a possibility, the overall landscape surrounding NFTs and crypto is dramatically different than it was in late 2020 and early 2021. Additionally, Top Shot’s S1 had mint sizes capped at 3,999. 468 of the 850 individual S1 Moments on Top Shot had mint sizes of 299 or less, and the total number of unique S1 Moments is 904,168 (with only 705,577 currently in circulation, though many of the remaining Moments will be dropping via S1 Reserve Packs). By comparison, ALL DAY’s total unique Moment supply, once everything is in circulation, will be 2,453,527, and that assumes no other S1 Moments will be minted. In short, ALL DAY’s S1 supply is going to be about 3x that of Top Shot’s, minimally.

But, what about Rares and Legendaries? These Moments are more in line with Top Shot’s S1 mint sizes and might provide a decent comparison. Like their Common counterparts, Rares and Legendaries will also need to contest with the issue of current circulation, though the raw number of additional Moments coming online is inherently lower due to their lower mint sizes. Currently, 90 of the 153 Rare Moments have an existing circulation under 30%. The distribution of Legendaries is a bit more appealing, where only 29 of the 71 Moments have a current circulation under 30%, though 44 of 71 Moments are still under the 50% threshold.

When looking at the actual liquidity of these Moments, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, though that is to be expected during the price discovery phase. On Friday morning, a Patrick Mahomes Legendary set the new record for largest sale, going for a whopping $30k. Interestingly, the buyer paid a serious premium to move up to serial #15, with #39 available for $14,539. It should be noted that as of the time of this writing, that is the only sale for this Moment, but still could be something to monitor. Additionally, Mahomes has two Rare Moments, one having a mint size of 899, the other having a mint size of 1,200. Currently, the 899, which is also his ALL DAY debut, has a low ask of $1,700, compared to the other Rare with a low ask of $300. Both Moments have enjoyed good liquidity so far, but the debut aspect clearly is returning a premium. This premium is evident elsewhere as well, though mainly for marquee players. For example, Joe Burrow has a Common Moment, which is his ALL DAY debut, with a low ask of $203. His Common, non-debut Moment is going for $26 (despite having a mint size of 8,500, less than the Common debut), while his Rare, non-debut Moment is going for $250. In other words, Burrow’s Common debut Moment, with a mint size of 10,000, is only $47 cheaper than his Rare Moment, with a mint size of 1,200. It should be noted that Burrow’s debut has a circulation of less than 5% though, meaning it’s very likely that the price delta will grow, especially because his Rare Moment has a circulation of more than 52%.

Unsurprisingly, this is also a function of the position – quarterback. QBs in general seem to be the highest valued assets on ALL DAY at the moment, largely due to the scarcity of the position and the fact that many QBs are household names. Of the last year’s legitimate starting QBs (i.e. not Josh Johnson, Andy Dalton, or Drew Lock), Jimmy Garoppolo has the lowest current ask, at $11. Meanwhile, a slew of running backs are going for less, including the likes of Devin Singletary, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Aaron Jones, Elijah Mitchell and Joe Mixon – not scrubs. Wide receivers seem to be even further down on the food chain, with Jerry Jeudy, a legitimately good WR, having a low ask of just $5. Plenty of other WRs are priced below Garoppolo, including debut Moments from Gabriel Davis and Keenan Allen. At the time of this writing, with the exception of Josh Johnson, there were 106 non-QB debuts listed below Garoppolo’s low ask for debut QB Moments, ranging across all other positions.

Ultimately, the first 24 hours were very successful across the platform, and ALL DAY tweeted out their top Marketplace purchases made during the first day, seen below:

Interestingly, Jalen Ramsey led the pack, while a Tom Brady Common far surpassed his Rare Moment. The Mahomes purchase from this morning blew these numbers out of the water, but it’s still a solid litmus test.

Takeaways

There are a lot of different ways to analyze a nascent market, and the information above is clearly not exhaustive. Additionally, it’s important to keep in mind that this is a snapshot in time. Reserve packs from Week 13 dropped today, and additional reserve packs from previous weeks will also be dropping in the future, which will impact supply and pricing. Furthermore, we’re certain that Dapper will be unveiling various forms of utility for ALL DAY, whether it’s their version of Collector Score, Challenges with rewards, or something completely unique. Plenty of speculation has already begun circulating about a DFS approach using ALL DAY Moments next season, but we’ll need to wait and see what develops. Right now, the biggest takeaway for our readers is the information surrounding circulation and future drops, which we hope will inform purchasing decisions. We’re as excited as anyone for ALL DAY (we wouldn’t have built out an entire analytical platform otherwise!) and are looking forward to seeing what the future holds. As always, we’d love to hear what you think about the early days of marketplace activity and your expectations for the future.