Player, brand, scarcity, and utility are all factors that impact a sports NFT’s value. But when I look at sports collectibles in terms of current and future value, I do so through the questions who cares and why. At the end of the day, collectibles increase in value when enough interested parties exceed supply. The days of buying $14 packs and consistently getting 10 times or more value on those purchases were a once in a lifetime event that is now over. You still don’t need a big budget to build a valuable collection, but you do need a real plan now beyond just showing up.

Insights based off my football knowledge paired with my experiences buying and selling traditional sports cards over the last decade might help you improve your own plan on who to target and why on the NFL All Day marketplace. In this article I’ll be discussing a number of NFL All Day Moments that I’ll be tracking with Own the Moments’ various tools leading into opening day of the 2022 season. I’ll also discuss some of my stances on supply and part of the reason why I’m not as concerned about that subject as you might be. But first, let’s identify some factors that will influence how successful Dapper Labs sports offerings ultimately become.

A Bet on Dapper Labs

In the traditional sports cards space, you can get the right player while buying the wrong card pretty easily. As an example some of my Russell Wilson rookie cards are on product lines that were discontinued, while some of my Shaquille O’Neal rookie cards were made by companies that went out of business years ago. In both instances, those dead brand options are worth much less than the rest of what I have of Russ and Shaq. So first and foremost, whenever you buy any kind of Moment be aware that you are effectively betting on Dapper Labs to be successful long term.

From a sports collectibles slant I loved NBA Top Shot the first time I laid eyes on it, as I immediately saw it as the next evolution in sports collectibles. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the next generation of sports fans preferred motion-based, digital collectibles to traditional cards. My reasoning behind that stance is a story for another day, but I was genuinely thrilled when Dapper Labs announced their deal to create the first motion-based NFL NFTs.

In order for any Dapper Labs sports product to be successful long-term, they need to draw a big enough user base to support all of their offerings. One significant advantage that Dapper Labs has in that regard is the potential for crossover on their various platforms. Dapper’s partnerships with the UFC and LaLiga (soccer) are reasons to be optimistic as both the UFC and (especially) soccer draw a ton of international interest. Once LaLiga NFTs are released Dapper Labs will have offerings for basketball fans, fight fans, football fans, and soccer fans all under the same banner. NFL officials have specifically said that their path to future growth is in international markets, and I couldn’t reasonably ask for three sports with more international appeal for collectors than basketball, soccer, and the UFC.

When it comes to NFL All Day specifically, they have done some things that I had hoped they wouldn’t. Rookie classes drive collectibles products, which is why it’s very important to handle rookie cards or rookie Moments in smart, structured ways. Releasing Rookie Debut Moments in different rarity tiers, for different players, is the opposite of structured as it creates an ecosystem where different rookies have wildly different options on the platform. Trey Lance’s first Legendary Moment is significantly different than the first Legendary Moments for fellow rookie signal callers Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. That kind of structural variance doesn’t really exist in the traditional sports cards space, at least not in the product lines that I pay attention to.

Similarly, Aaron Rodgers is arguably the most talented quarterback in history and his Debut Moment has him throwing a 2-yard pass (air yards) to a wide-open tight end off play action for a first down. That Debut Moment falls in the Legendary tier, with a mint run of just /39, which makes this particular Moment one that could potentially fetch the first truly eye catching and therefore buzz-creating sale on the platform. Assuming Rodgers Debut Moment landed in the Legendary tier for this exact purpose, it would make a lot of sense for said Moment to be a far more eye-catching performance from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Curiously, Rodgers other current Moment on the platform is also in the Legendary tier and it also involves a fairly pedestrian throw from the ultra-talented Rodgers.

While I’m generally bullish on Dapper Labs sports ventures, these types of decisions are missed opportunities to create additional value for consumers. Every major rookie or notable veteran Debut Moment that falls solely in the Rare or Legendary tiers significantly reduces the number of “wanted” Moments that can give a pack opener a positive experience. No one wants to open a pack and get nothing but scraps, that’s the real problem going on in NBA Top Shot right now, which is why maximizing every realistic opportunity to limit those negative experiences is vital to long-term success. These structural decisions have unnecessarily removed tens of thousands of packs where the user “wins.”

Similarly, significant releases for historically relevant veterans and major rookies should come with the best or most important plays from those athletes in that particular season. When making a Debut or an exceedingly rare motion-based collectible of an icon or a major rookie, boost its desirability further by building it around a must see highlight as often as possible. That’s the greatest advantage these collectibles have over the traditional sports card products.

Sport Collectible Supply

In my mind investing in athletes through Dapper Labs’ sports NFTs is primarily a bet on the future. I wouldn’t have gone the exact direction they have with pack releases across their three live platforms over the last few months, but I would also be the first to tell you that achieving equilibrium between price, supply, and desirability in this space is very difficult and rarely accomplished. NFL All Day supply doesn’t concern me all that much at this juncture, and I’ll use a rough example in the traditional cards market to frame why that is.

Panini Prizm has been the flagship football and basketball card for years, as it blends desirability with accessibility better than any of Panini’s other product lines over the last (almost) decade. While you’re unlikely to actually find Prizm in Walmart during the second sports card boom (they tend to sell out instantly), retail giants like Walmart have sold Prizm since its inception in 2012. For arguments sake let’s pretend that each one of the roughly 4,700 Walmart’s in America gets one 20-box case of Panini Prizm blasters. With 24 cards in each blaster box, and all 4,700 stores getting 20 boxes in this theoretical study (case contents sometimes change in different years), that amounts to 2.256 million Prizm cards.

That number doesn’t include what big retailers like Target sell, the other retail options that can be found at Walmart or similar stores, the possibility that big retailers get more than one case of blasters per store, and it doesn’t include hobby boxes that can be found at card shops and Panini distributors throughout the country. Prizm is one of more than two dozen product lines that Panini produces in both football and basketball. While not all of those options are structured like Prizm is, the point I’m trying to make is that Panini produces tens of millions of football cards every year. Further, NFL and NBA rookies each have hundreds of variations across all of Panini’s releases. I’m far more concerned about current supply there than I am here.

If any Dapper Labs sports products are going to succeed long term, they need more users. Plain and simple. If Dapper can ultimately turn just 1% of football fans, basketball fans, and so on into account holders, demand for relevant players will far exceed current supply in the NFL All Day ecosystem. Among the reasons that I am optimistic about NFL All Day and all of Dapper Labs sports offerings is not only do I think that’s a very realistic goal, but we’ve already seen that the traditional sports card market is capable of drawing massive interest.

It’s still very early in Dapper Labs campaign to rule the digital sports collectibles world, and while I have my concerns in how they are structuring some very important things, I remain optimistic that they can pull this off. The path to success here is that more NFT enthusiasts and more sports fans have to actually use Dapper Labs offerings. The first step in that process is reaching more of those people. Beyond that, this is all a matter of who cares and why.

Moments I’m Tracking

Realistically speaking, I could write an analysis on every player on the NFL All Day platform with their upside and downside collectibles cases off the top of my head. But in the interest of keeping what’s to follow a manageable size, I’m going to focus on a number of players that I’m specifically tracking using Own the Moments’ tools.

To be clear, I have some level of interest in every top ten quarterback and in each of the rookie signal callers taken in the first round. But I only mention a few in each case.

Rookie Debut Moments

Trey Lance

Pass, January 2, 2022

Rookie Revelation, Legendary /49

When Lance takes over at quarterback for the 49ers, he’s going to inherit a championship-caliber roster with one of the best offensive play callers in the sport. The situation that Lance fell into here is similar to Andy Reid’s Chiefs trading up for Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger landing with the Steelers highly capable roster. While Lance has to do his part by playing well enough to warrant being taken with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, and it’s probably not an absolute certainty that he’s the 49ers opening day starter next year, first round quarterbacks land in this kind of a situation once or twice a decade. This play was also an excellent choice for Lance’s debut Moment, as it’s a flashy downfield throw for a score to 49ers stud Deebo Samuel during a home victory. If you’re an upside investor with a considerable budget, this is the Series 1 Moment you want. In fact, this Moment has the potential to be the headliner of Series 1.

Trevor Lawrence

Pass, January 2, 2022

Launch Codes, Rare /899

As a football guy, this throw from Lawrence here is a terrible decision that simultaneously shows off how much talent last year’s first overall pick has, as he fits a no-window deep shot in between a small army of Patriots defenders. Lawrence is one of the most highly regarded college quarterback prospects in recent memory, but he struggled throughout his rookie campaign and his Jaguars finished with the worst record in the league last year. While the significant upside remains, there is more downside here than most would have expected out of Lawrence. With that said, the shift from Urban Meyer’s circus to Doug Peterson’s new regime can be nothing but a positive for Lawrence and his Jaguars.

Mac Jones

Pass, December 18, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

If I were to list the ten best current quarterbacks heading into the 2022 season, only one of them (Matthew Stafford) isn’t an athletic play extender. I mention this because Jones isn’t an athletic play extender, either, but he does have an advantage that only one other quarterback has consistently enjoyed in recent memory: Bill Belichick’s defense and Bill Belichick’s ability to gameplan. That alone gives Jones a realistic path to playing on relevant teams through his rookie contract, and we’ve already seen that he can be part of getting the Patriots to the playoffs. On top of that, I liked Jones more coming out of the draft than most did, and he couldn’t have landed in a better situation for his skill set.

Ja’Marr Chase

Reception, December 26, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

This is a rare instance where a top shelf wide receiver could legitimately play his entire career with a high-end quarterback. The sole concern that I have here is that Chase is coming off a historic rookie season that culminated in a Super Bowl appearance, which means that outside of system-wide swells you might be buying Chase at his collectibles peak right now. Becoming the standalone best wide receiver in the league, being a primary factor in another Super Bowl run, or ultimately finishing up as an all-time great at the position are the ways beyond general market swells that Chase’s sports collectibles significantly increase in value from this point forward. With that said, if you primarily want to bet on the NFL All Day platform being successful and you want to invest in a Series 1 rookie for that purpose, I’d probably tell you that Chase is the safest option for that venture.

Rookie Year Moments (Non-Debuts)

Kyle Pitts

Reception, October 10, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

Pitts is more wide receiver than tight end, but as long as he continues to get the tight end designation he has a legitimate shot of becoming one of the most productive pass catchers in history at the position. Since Pitts Rookie Debut Moment is in the Legendary tier, acquiring his first score via this Moment is a much more affordable way to get a Series 1 share of the uniquely talented Pitts.

Jaylen Waddle

Reception, September 12, 2021

Base, Common / 10,000

This Moment captures Waddle’s first career touchdown on opening day against the rival Patriots. Waddle is an elite speedster that exceeded 100 catches in his rookie year, which indicates that he’s not drawing dead at ultimately being the best pass catcher in this rookie class despite the existence of both Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. Since Waddle’s Rookie Debut Moment is in the Legendary tier, this is a more affordable way to get a milestone Series 1 Moment of the Dolphins impressive rookie wide receiver.

Veteran Debut Moments

Tom Brady

Pass, December 12, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

Any future Hall of Fame or high-performing young quarterback’s Debut Moment is going to be in high demand, but Brady is widely viewed as the greatest of all time and this will always be among the most sought-after Series 1 Moments on the All Day platform. Just about every avid All Day collector is going to want one of these in their collection.

Rob Gronkowski

Reception, January 16, 2022

Super Wild Card Weekend, Common /8,500

This option doubles as the Debut Moment for arguably the greatest tight end in history, and that most likely captures the last time the historic duo of Tom Brady and Gronk hooks up for a score. If you’re looking for an example of how a motion-based sports NFT can be better than a traditional sports card, this is a great example.

Veteran Moments (Non-Debuts)

Tom Brady

Pass, January 23rd, 2022

Divisional Round, Rare /1,200

If Brady remains retired, this Moment captures his last touchdown pass in his last NFL game. While that alone can make this one of the most coveted Series 1 Moments both in the short and long term, this is also a legitimately strong highlight as Brady hits Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans in stride for a 55-yard score over one of the best cornerbacks in the game in the Rams Jalen Ramsey.

Ben Roethlisberger

Pass, January 16th, 2022

Super Wild Card Weekend, Common /8,500

While Big Ben did not enjoy the most glorious send off in his final game, he is a future first ballot Hall of Famer throwing his last touchdown pass in this Moment.

Defensive Debuts

Micah Parsons

Sack, December 12th, 2021

In the Trenches, Rare /699

Parsons’ collectibles situation is similar to that of Ja’Marr Chase in the sense that Parsons is coming off a ridiculously strong rookie season, so this could realistically be one of his peaks from a collectibles sense even if he continues to play at a high level. With that said, Parsons gets the added bonus of being a Cowboy, which means that he will have multiple opportunities to impress in front of a national audience every year.

Aaron Donald

Forced Fumble, December 5th, 2021

Make the Stop, Common /7,000

Donald is one of the greatest defensive players in history with three Defensive Player of the Year awards in the books (which is tied with J.J. Watt and Lawrence Taylor for the most in history). He’s also coming off his first Super Bowl win, which ultimately means that this could very well be Donald’s collectibles peak outside of a general market swell or his Hall of Fame induction. For the big budget collectors, Donald’s Super Bowl Moment has a lot of potential as he effectively closes that game out on the Rams final defensive play.

T.J. Watt

Sack, December 19th, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

The Steelers are among the most popular brands in the NFL and Watt is already one of the true defensive stars in the league despite being only 27 years old. His Debut Moment here and his January 9th, 2022 “Make the Stop” Moment where he ties the single-season sack record were two of the first options to make my watch list.

Some More Speculative Debut Moments

Dallas Cowboys

Blocked Kick, December 26th, 2021

Make the Stop, Common /7,000

I’m not entirely sure how desired these team-based Moments will be, but if the NFL All Day product is successful, we can be pretty confident that there will be far more than 7,000 Cowboys fans on the platform. I am tracking these types of Moments for several of the most popular organizations in the sport.

Ceedee Lamb

Reception, January 8th, 2022

Base, Common /10,000

Lamb is already one of the best young wide receivers in the game that is now entering his third season (which is often the breakout year for pass catchers) for the national draw that is the Dallas Cowboys. Generally speaking, no one sees more opportunities to play in front of a national audience than the Cowboys, which is a primary reason that I’ve also been buying Lamb rookies in the traditional cards market for over a year now.

Julio Jones

Reception, January 9th, 2022

Base, Common /10,000

Much like Carmelo Anthony on the Top Shot platform, Julio Jones is a great player currently in the journeyman phase near the end of his career. That may create situations where you can get this Moment at a discount over the next several months.

Chase Claypool

Reception, December 5th, 2021

Base, Common /10,000

After showing some major upside in his rookie campaign in 2020, Claypool had an underwhelming second season last year for the Steelers. I expected this (I had ~1% Claypool exposure in best ball last year) because I was confident that Big Ben’s eroding skillset was going to be a negative for Claypool last season. The Steelers are still in flux at the quarterback position and contested catch wide receivers like Claypool need certain forms of quarterback play to be successful, but Claypool is among my favorite buy low options as he has an elite skill, he’s already shown flashes of being an impact player, and the Steelers are among the most notable brands in the sport. Further, not only has Pittsburgh been among the most consistently successful teams throughout this century, but they have a long-standing history of being able to effectively develop their own players, with the wide receiver position being one of the organizations developmental strengths for years.

As always, you should use OTM tools to do research when thinking about buying these moments, paying particular attention to circulation counts that can vary wildly by player. The above list are players that I’m interested in investing in as a sports collectibles investor as NFL All Day emerges.