And we’re back! It’s been a few weeks, but as we head to the final third of the NFL regular season, it’s time to jump back in. Since we last checked in, much has changed across the league. Contenders and pretenders have differentiated themselves, a rash of injuries to marquee players and Rumble mainstays have wreaked havoc on lineups, and major personnel moves at the deadline shook up the fabric of the league.

PLAY OTM RUMBLE

Week 13 Rumble Wrinkle

After 3 big Rumble Wrinkle Thanksgiving games, last night’s Bills @ Patriots matchup was a much more subdued affair. Josh Allen put up an uncharacteristically pedestrian 17.9 points, which will probably not be enough for most players.

Stefan Diggs did rack up a solid 22.2 total, which may make the cut for some.

Nothing of note from any Patriots.

Week 13 Main Slate

For the rest of the slate, there are a few very intriguing games to keep an eye on.

The Jaguars and Lions game will likely get plenty of traction due to the week’s second highest o/u, currently at 51.5, and we’ll likely see Amon Ra with high ownership once again. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have the flamethrowing pedigree to elevate him in the ownership projections too much despite the juicy matchup, but he’s been getting better and better. This game could turn into a track meet, and both teams could go into gunslinger mode.
Kansas City and Cincinnati will also have plenty of appearances in Rumble Rosters, especially with Ja’Marr Chase potentially making his return. While it’s an intriguing play, players coming off long injuries are tough to trust, and I’d be inclined to fade him until ensuring he’s not on a pitch count. Instead, if Chase does play, it could really open things up for Tee Higgins. On the other side, Mahomes and Kelce will of course be highly owned, with Kelce likely topping the 50% threshold due to the matchup and Mark Andrews’ lack of performance (largely due to injury) since Week 6.
The Raiders and Chargers also present a juicy matchup, and we’ll likely see Ekeler and Jacobs with huge ownership numbers, although the stigma attached to Jacobs still hasn’t subsided despite continued dominance. We’ll see if Jacobs approaches the 25% ownership level, though I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it’s still fairly low.

Week 13 Stacks and Sleepers

As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that?
Here are some plays to keep an eye on this week:

Trevor Lawrence & Christian Kirk – After a disappointing season marred by the existence of Urban Meyer, a lot of pundits were writing Lawrence off. This year, he’s been solid and shown signs of improvements, albeit without too many eye-popping stats. Last week, Lawrence led the Jags to a gutsy win cut straight from the mold of Gardiner Minshew’s glorious mustache, and the stars might be aligning for Lawrence’s true coming out party. I’m not buying the Zay Jones repeat, but think Lawrence and Christian Kirk could be a doozy of a stack, especially with Kirk coming off a pedestrian 4/46/0 line last week.
Justin Fields – If he’s back, keep an eye on this one. Fields is returning from a shoulder injury, so it’s possible they’ll want to limit the contact he takes as a runner. But, Jalen Hurts just lit up the Packers with over 150 yards on the ground, and the Bears will likely have to rely on Fields’ athleticism, especially with Darnell Mooney done for the year. Green Bay looks bad, Fields and the Bears have been looking much more dynamic (Mooney injury and last week notwithstanding), and ownership will be very low.
Nick Chubb – Aside from Josh Jacobs, is there any RB more disrespected than Nick Chubb? One of the best players in the game, Chubb doesn’t get his due because of Kareem Hunt’s presence and lack of use in the pass catching game. Nonetheless, Chubb racks up massive games on the ground, and should feast against Houston this week. Plus DeShaun Watson will be back and I’m rooting for him to absolutely suck, so go Chubb!
Tee Higgins – As mentioned above, if Ja’Marr Chase is back, we like Higgins even more this week. Last week, despite a solid matchup, he was owned in only 5% of lineups. Outside of Week 4, he hasn’t topped 8% ownership, and this game could be a shootout. With the TNF potentially eating up two or more Rumble Roster spots, differentiating will be key.
CeeDee Lamb – Quick, guess how many times CeeDee Lamb’s ownership has topped 5%? If you guess three times, you’d be right! One of the most talented WRs, Lamb has 31 targets in his last three games, and that includes a five-target game where the Cowboys annihilated the Vikings 40-3 and were able to stop throwing the ball early. Dallas could put up big points this weekend, and Lamb is well positioned for a big game.

Week 12 Reactions

An interesting tidbit to start, the highest Rumble score last week was actually achieved in our Jolly Joker exclusive Field Goal contest. Despite the Main Event having over 3,000 entries, compared to the Field Goal having 173, kindhearted_insect4718 took home the glory with 225 points. For the sake of brevity, when we mention ownership numbers it will be in reference to the Main Event.

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Despite nursing an injury, Josh Allen returned to dominant form last week, putting up big numbers in a seesaw Thanksgiving tilt against Detroit. After a few ho-hum outings, the early season MVP-favorite finally put together a 3 TD game (one if by land, two if by…air), the first time he’d put up that many cumulative scores since Week 6 in Kansas City. The Thursday Night Wrinkle helped breed additional confidence into starting Allen, who was played by over half the field. From there, the winning lineup consisted of plenty of the other usual suspects, and the large Thanksgiving slate, consisting of three games, helped result in several free squares. Joining Allen was Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs (who our victor played as the Hero), accounting for half the lineup. From there, Travis Kelce and Austin Ekeler, both with huge ownership numbers, provided two huge chalk plays, leaving just two remaining slots. These were filled by the Miami DST, which despite playing against a putrid Houston team made even worse by starting Kyle Allen over Davis Mills (seriously), actually had a surprisingly low ownership – ranging from around 8-10% across contests. While there may have been other more attractive options – like Kansas City facing off against the Rams JV squad, or San Francisco’s smothering defense at home against New Orleans, both of whom performed well – it was the Miami DST taking home the top prize at the position. Last, but certainly not least, our victory played Josh Jacobs, who is officially back from the dead and is now leading the NFL in rushing by over 100 yards, a truly astounding accomplishment given the press he received this season. While all else has failed in Raider Nation this year, Jacobs has been a revelation…unfortunately they failed to pick up his 5th year option going into the season, so…

While Week 12 had plenty of drama and excitement, the TNF Wrinkle helped to lock in top performers, especially because there were some big names playing on Thanksgiving. At QB, Allen was the top performer with 31 points, reflected by his massive ownership numbers, as he appeared in more than half of the Rumble Rosters entered. Jalen Hurts nearly upstaged him, thanks to a ridiculous performance against Green Bay, largely on the ground, and if it wasn’t for Philadelphia’s three-headed ground attack he likely would have topped Allen by a decent margin. Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence rounded out the top 5, none of whom had over 2.31% ownership, due to Allen’s TNF showing. Herbert and Lawrence engineered miraculous last-second comebacks, and while Kyler was on the receiving end of Herbert’s heroics, he at least finally looked competent under center, though it might be too little, too late. The only other QB to exceed 4.43% ownership was Mahomes, coming in at 9.09%, but he came in 11th in QB scoring due to Los Angeles’ ineptitude. Unfortunately for Mike White, he’s ALL DAY Moment-less, but that might be changing soon.

At RB, it was the Josh Jacobs show once again, with an historic game, tallying an insane 303 yards from scrimmage, the 8th most all time in a single NFL game. Jacobs capped his already massive day with an 86-yard, game winning scamper in overtime, capping a performance from the ages. Jacobs’ incredible performance sent him into another stratosphere, beating out the RB2, Miles Sanders, who had a fantastic game in his own right, by over 17 points, the largest discrepancy between the top player and runner-up at any position this year. Jacobs was owned by 11% of the field, meaning if you had him, you were off to the races, and Sanders was played in less than 1%. From there Austin Ekeler, James Conner, and Brian Robinson rounded out the top five. Ekeler was the smash play of the week at RB, living up to the hype thanks to a last second TD reception, while Conner and Robinson both had very low ownership, namely Robinson at just 0.36%. Christian McCaffery was the second most owned RB at over 37%, but busted in San Francisco, while Derrick Henry, the third most owned RB at 34%, also had an unspectacular performance, largely due to a goalline fumble that could have salvaged his day.

WR was dominated by two TNF appearances, with Justin Jefferson appearing in over half the lineups, like Allen, and taking home the WR1 position, while Amon-Ra St. Brown was in 35% of lineups and came in as the WR3. Outside of those smash plays though, things got crazy. Chris Godwin was in just 0.26% of lineups and was the WR2, while Zay Jones was the WR4 at 0.13% and Garrett Wilson rounded out the top five at 0.91%. Perhaps those numbers were even lower than normal due to the layup that Jefferson and St. Brown provided, thereby driving down ownership elsewhere. Interestingly, Stefon Diggs, who had six points less than St. Brown and also played on Thursday, was actually owned in 6% more lineups, an interesting capitulation that ultimately did not pan out. While Diggs was solid, coming in as the WR8, it was a bit surprising to see so many Rumble contestants take the points despite the assurance that after TNF Diggs could only be the WR4 at best (with Isaiah McKenzie also surpassing Diggs that night). From there, only Tyreek Hill had over 16% ownership, coming in at 31%, and while Miami ran roughshod on Houston, Hill couldn’t get in the end zone and wasn’t needed too much. Davante Adams was the only other WR that appeared in more than 7% of lineups and was upstaged by Jacobs (and Mack Hollins).

TE had some major weirdness, with Jelani Woods (who?) taking home the TE1 for…hold on I have to check the notes to see what team he’s on…the Indianapolis Colts. Kelce predictably came in as the TE2. Interestingly, despite the Patriots playing on Thursday and Hunter Henry putting up a very solid 15.5 points, ultimately landing him the TE3 spot, he was only played in 2.54% of lineups. As a comparison, Stefon Diggs, who couldn’t end up higher than the WR4 after the Thursday game, was played in almost 40% of lineups, but Hunter Henry, who’s performance would have guaranteed him no worse than a TE6 finish in any week this season, in a notoriously difficult position to predict, was played by just 2.54% of the field. Additionally, T.J. Hockenson, who also played on Thursday and was the TE4 with 15.3 points, was played in 12% of lineups. What the? Last but not least, David Njoku continued his strong season and rounded out the top five, catching an insane last second TD en route to a huge comeback win against the Bucs. Mark Andrews was the only other TE of note, with the second most ownership at 21%, and while he started off strong, Andrews had a fumble and uncharacteristic drop. Ultimately, Andrews was overshadowed by Momentless Josh Oliver, who would have been the TE2.

As stated, Miami took home the DST prize, while San Francisco, Kansas City, Carolina, and Pittsburgh made up the top five, all of whom were strong projections due to weak opponents.