This is an interesting week as there are several significant favorites on this slate with only two games that are projected to be both close while having a significant game total. On Thursday the Dallas defense is the only true lock button type of play from that contest, so there could once again be some unexpected participants in this week’s winning Main Event lineup.

Analyzing Thursday

New Orleans quarterbacks put up a solid 28.66 score while Dallas quarterbacks posted an underwhelming 14.22 points last Thursday night. New Orleans running backs had a Lowball worthy score of 2.6 points while the Dallas group posted a middling 18.1 score. Both New Orleans (32.6) and Dallas (28.3) wide receivers posted solid scores that are not normally high enough to be in a Main Event winning lineup. That said, considering that Dallas wide receivers were part of last week’s Main Event winning lineup despite having a lower score than both of these options, you may have to make a decision on whether you prefer taking the known entity or taking a shot on more upside at this position this week. Both the Dallas (4.3) and New Orleans (8.4) scores at tight end leave a lot to be desired, though 8.4 points would have beat the score at tight end in a few Main Event winning lineups this season. The New Orleans defensive score of 6 points is a little too high for Lowball while being very skippable in our other contests. The Dallas defensive score of 21 points is one that you can freely lock into your best Main Event lineup this week.

Potential Game Stacks

Cincinnati vs Los Angeles (American): Since this game will be played in December in the Midwest, we have to at least make sure there isn’t any significant wind in the forecast. Apart from that this contest is tied for the week’s highest game total (50 ½ points) and there is a very real chance that this contest could remain close, making this a game environment we want to strongly consider. While the Cincinnati quarterbacks and wide receivers have interesting upside here, the Cincinnati running backs card has provided several spike weeks this season and they face Los Angeles’s terrible run defense. Both of those factors make the Cincinnati running backs card a top option at the position this week, and one that I will be playing in my best Main Event lineup. On the Los Angeles side their quarterback would be my preference, though their wide receivers and running backs come with plenty of upside here as well. The Los Angeles (American) tight ends card has produced a number of spike weeks this season and should be on your radar in this matchup if you have access to that card.

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay: This game likely plays in one of two ways, either Tampa Bay trucks struggling Atlanta or inconsistent Atlanta has one of their surge games against a superior opponent, which is something they’ve done once or twice a year the past few seasons. All of the Tampa Bay offensive options are on the table here, and their running backs card broke the slate last week. While the Tampa Bay passing attack is in a potential smash spot here, it is worth noting that Antonio Brown is now suspended until Week 16, which hurts the ceiling for this still solid wide receiver group over the next few weeks (as he was expected to be back soon). If you lean towards Tampa Bay handling Atlanta decisively here, the Tampa Bay defense card has some interesting potential in this spot. On the Atlanta side their running backs have shockingly been their most valuable fantasy asset in the Owners Club, though production from that group would likely need to come through the air this week as Tampa Bay boasts the best run defense in football. Atlanta wide receivers are in an above average matchup here, but they likely lack the firepower to lead the slate at the position with Calvin Ridley still sidelined. If I had the Atlanta tight ends card in this matchup, I’d be playing it. Atlanta’s defense is a potential Lowball option while the Atlanta quarterbacks card has some interesting potential, that comes with a fairly scary floor against Tampa Bay.

Las Vegas vs Washington: This is a late-season indoor game with the slate’s third highest game total (49 ½) where two unfamiliar teams in Wild Card contention will square off. On the Washington side I’m less enthusiastic about the Washington running backs group with J.D. McKissic already ruled out, but this group should still be on your radar in a good matchup while coming off a spike game last week. I’m interested in the Washington wide receivers and their tight ends as potential contrarian options this week. With Darren Waller likely out the upside for Las Vegas tight ends is not as great as it normally would be, but Foster Moreau is a solid player and this card shouldn’t be an automatic cross off. Las Vegas wide receivers had a good week on Thanksgiving, and Derek Carr has played well enough this season where they should also be on your radar as more of a contrarian option. If Josh Jacobs is able to play, the Las Vegas running backs card is the Las Vegas option that I’d be most interested in this week, as that group has two talented players that could collectively put up considerable production in both phases.

Let’s Discuss

Los Angeles (National), Indianapolis, and Minnesota: All three of these playoff contenders are in very similar situations this week, as they are each significant favorites against a bottom three team in the league as Los Angeles hosts Jacksonville, while Indianapolis heads to Houston and Minnesota heads to Detroit.

Los Angeles has lost three games in a row, which makes this matchup versus Jacksonville a potential get well game for a title contender where all of their options are in plus matchups. The Los Angeles wide receivers group has been a top performer all year while their quarterback has either been in or near the top 5 at the position all season. The Los Angeles tight ends and running backs are both in a good position here, but are much more volatile options on average. If I had to bet on one defense to beat the Dallas score from last Thursday it would be this Los Angeles group in this matchup.

Indianapolis has been playing everyone tough this year and they just took Tampa Bay to the brink. Their running backs card is a top play this week with a massive ceiling. If Houston’s offense can manage to push this game at all the Indianapolis passing attack is in another plus matchup here in an indoor game. The Indianapolis defense is another unit that should be considered a top play this week.

With Dalvin Cook out Alexander Mattison is in a good position here against Detroit, but despite the talent of this Minnesota running backs group this card has underwhelmed in our format as most options that are almost entirely reliant on one runner do. What I find truly interesting about this matchup is the potential of the Minnesota quarterback paired with their wide receivers. There is no guarantee that Minnesota comes out more aggressive offensively with Cook sidelined, but if they do and Detroit puts up any kind of offense at all, Minnesota’s quarterback or wide receivers may have their best shot of leading the slate this season in this matchup.

Uncorrelated Plays

Baltimore Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson has been struggling and Pittsburgh has historically done a very good job of limiting Jackson. With that said it’s been a very long time since Pittsburgh’s defense has been more of a middle of the road unit than a top tier one, so while I’d still frame Jackson as a not quite safe play I’m very interested to see how Baltimore’s offense performs in this spot. I’d also have Baltimore’s wide receiver group as an interesting contrarian option this week.

New York Running Backs (National): This week’s matchup in Miami has some interesting potential with Saquon Barkley now in his third game since returning from an ankle injury. While this matchup has some upside for this group, next week’s contest against the embarrassing run defense of Los Angeles (American) is a potential smash spot for this otherwise disappointing card.

Seattle Wide Receivers: This passing attack is certainly volatile and therefore should be treated as more of a contrarian play, but this week’s matchup with familiar San Francisco comes with some interesting upside for this group. D.K. Metcalf in particular has gone nuclear against San Francisco in the recent past.

Denver Wide Receivers: This talented group’s quarterback situation makes them quite volatile, but we can reasonably expect Denver to have to play catch up at some point in Kanas City. In truth every Denver option on offense has greater than normal potential in this divisional matchup.

Kansas City Tight Ends: We can reasonably deploy any Kansas City option on offense, but Travis Kelce has had a number of strong games against Denver during the Patrick Mahomes era.

Miami Defense: This group has been surging and whether Daniel Jones plays or not Miami’s defense has one of the best shots of catching the Dallas score this week.

Defenses with Potential Running Back Correlations

Philadelphia Running Backs with Philadelphia Defense at New York (American): I don’t trust Philadelphia’s coaching staff and New York’s run defense is better than their pass defense, but Philadelphia should control both lines in this contest and this offense has been at it’s best when it’s been more run centric. If you’re considering this option, be sure to check in on injury statuses for this group before deploying them.