There is a very real chance that Thursday night’s contest between Indianapolis and New York will yield at least two, with as many as four of the cards that will be in this week’s Main Event winner. We have to plan all of our Main Event and Side Hustle decisions around those outcomes this week. Since figuring out which defense to play might be the most important decision for Main Event lineups this week, I’ll be providing more of those potential options than normal this week.

Analyzing Thursday

We ended up getting a game with 75 total points on Thursday night. If you have access to the Indianapolis running backs (48.8 points) or New York (American) quarterbacks card (41.28 points) you have to play them this week as both groups went nuclear. After disparaging the low performing New York tight ends on Wednesday, they put up a very playable 14.2 points. New York receivers are also very playable with a 38.22 score. New York running backs (19.7 points), Indianapolis wide receivers (21.2), Indianapolis tight ends (11.6), and the Indianapolis quarterbacks (30.28 points) cards all had fair to good nights, but we already know they’ve been outperformed. The New York (American) defense card is the only Lowball option that came out of this contest with a single point.

Potential Game Stacks

Los Angeles (National) vs Tennessee: If the Big Dog was active this would be a much more interesting game. As it stands now, Tennessee is a 7 ½ point road dog whose disappointing passing game to this point in the season will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the league. Given the situation, I’d take a wait and see approach on Tennessee’s Big Dog-less offense when possible. Los Angeles has faced a lot of soft opponents in the first half of this season, but most of their options have been top performers and are in yet another strong spot this Sunday night. Once again you could realistically play any of their options, including their defense, in this contest. The Los Angeles tight ends card is the only one that I’d desribe as having a low floor in this matchup. The Los Angeles quarterbacks and wide receivers have been among our top and most consistent performers on the season, but keep in mind they have to beat the massive production New York put together on Thursday.

Philadelphia vs Los Angeles (American): This is an interesting game as we know that you can run on Los Angeles with great success and Philadelphia actually ran a ton in Detroit last week. While we should continue to view everything about the Philadelphia offense as unreliable, this is an interesting spot for their running backs group. I like the Los Angeles passing game in this contest, where their quarterbacks card would be on my short list of options that has a shot of approaching the New York score from Thursday night. Similarly, I really like Austin Ekeler in this spot as the Philadelphia linebackers are not built to handle a player like Ekeler in the passing game. With that said, this group likely doesn’t see enough volume to challenge the Indianapolis running backs massive score this week.

Baltimore vs Minnesota: With Baltimore we have one of the quarterbacks that has the best shot of beating the New York score in a matchup against Minnesota that has some shootout potential. The Baltimore wide receivers card is in an interesting spot but we’d be expecting a lot out of them to beat the current New York wide receivers score as Baltimore has yet to hit that high of a score on the season to date. The Baltimore tight ends certainly have the upside to beat the New York score at the tight end position. Minnesota is a bit Jekyll and Hyde, as they have enough talent on offense to hang with anyone or push a shootout, but they are equally capable of underperforming as they did last Sunday night. The Minnesota running backs card has been a disappointing middle of the pack performer despite their talent to this point in the season. While that group always has considerable upside, it would be a very big surprise if they approached the Indianapolis score against Baltimore this week. Similarly, the Minnesota passing offense also has a lot of upside and has shown that they are capable of big scores throughout the year, but it would be expecting a lot out of them to beat the New York scores at quarterback, wide receiver, and even tight end in Baltimore.

Dallas vs Denver: After trading defensive icon Von Miller, it will be very interesting to see how well Denver plays this week as the organization basically waived the white flag on the season with that trade. If they play well and Dak Prescott returns to action as expected, this game has some interesting shootout potential. They will be volatile, but this will be the first time that I’d consider the Denver quarterback or wide receivers in a Main Event lineup. On the Dallas side they are one of the handful of teams where you can realistically play any of their options on offense, but you have to check the injury report on them this week just in case Dak or CeeDee Lamb have a setback. The Dallas defense is also a potential option here, as they are two-score home favorites against a team whose organization basically announced that they don’t view them as contenders, Denver coming out flat would hardly be a surprise.

Let’s Discuss

Buffalo: In the games that Josh Allen and this passing offense have really hit, their opponent has either pushed Buffalo by scoring at least 20 points or beaten them outright in a shootout (which is what Tennessee did a few Mondays ago). Buffalo is a 14 ½ point road favorite against Jacksonville this week. If Jacksonville can push Buffalo at all, Buffalo wide receivers and their quarterbacks are among the most likely options to beat the known high scorers from Thursday night. But that would be a considerable expectation from Jacksonville’s volatile offense. Buffalo’s defense will also be among the top considerations to pair with the high performers from last Thursday.

Kansas City: The Kansas City offense has been a shell of its former self in recent weeks, which means that we have to view those options as more volatile than any of us would have expected before the season started. With that said, this roster has plenty of talent and Kansas City is a 7-point home favorite against Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay this week. This game environment would easily be the best on the slate if Rodgers was active, but there is still enough upside in the Kansas City passing game to challenge the New York options from last Thursday.

San Francisco: George Kittle returns, which makes the San Francisco tight ends card a high upside option once again. In this matchup Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are not practicing and the line has shifted from Arizona being a slight favorite to San Francisco being a slight favorite in the last few days, which frames Murray’s status as being very much in doubt. If Murray plays, this is an interesting game environment with some shootout potential where San Francisco’s passing offense has greater upside than normal. If Murray sits, the San Francisco defense becomes an interesting option that could potentially be paired with their running backs.

Uncorrelated Plays

Cincinnati Quarterbacks: Cleveland’s pass rush is a concern here, but we already know we have to play a quarterback that can hit 400 yards passing and multiple touchdowns this week. Cincinnati has one of those guys. The Cincinnati quarterback with their wide receivers brought back with the Cleveland running backs card is an interesting game stacking option this week.

Green Bay Running Backs: With Aaron Rodgers ruled out with COVID, we can reasonably expect the Green Bay game plan to be heavily reliant on their running backs group. Considering the game environment and the potential for way above average running back volume here, this group is one of the few that has a shot at approaching Indianapolis’s mammoth score at the position this week.

Miami Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends: First, the Miami tight ends card has been a top performer this season and they draw an elite matchup against a Houston defense that has struggled against tight ends all year. But this is also an excellent spot for Miami’s wide receivers, as well as their quarterback.

Las Vegas Tight Ends: The Henry Ruggs situation is a tragedy on every front. From a football sense, Vegas now lacks a perimeter burner while their other pass catchers all likely see a little bit of a usage increase. Waller is now the undisputed most dynamic athlete in the Vegas passing game and if any New York (National) linebackers find themselves in situations where they have to cover Waller this week they could be in a lot of trouble. I like the Vegas tight ends card to be better in the second half of the season than it was in the first.

Atlanta Tight Ends: This card is already a premium performer at the position, but for as long as Calvin Ridley is sidelined Kyle Pitts is the alpha dog in this passing attack. Anything that any other Atlanta tight end accomplishes is gravy.

Pittsburgh Defense: Pittsburgh has a strong front and they play a lot of zone which should make it harder for dynamic athlete Justin Fields to have a lot of success on the ground (zone defenders spend more of their time facing the quarterback, which allows them to more quickly react to a scrambler). Since Chicago has been the worst passing offense to this point in the season, the Pittsburgh defense is in an excellent position in this matchup to give up minimal points while potentially accumulating numerous sacks and multiple turnovers.

Miami Defense: This unit has underperformed to this point in the season and Tyrod Taylor returns at quarterback for Houston, but Miami is still a significant home favorite facing one of the most volatile offenses in the league.

New England Defense: With the New England defense we have a unit that’s very capable of a spike game against what has been a very volatile Carolina offense in recent weeks. If Christian McCaffrey returns, that certainly wouldn’t make New England’s defense a cross off, but it would make life easier for Carolina’s quarterbacks (we don’t know which one will play yet, but New England is very familiar with Sam Darnold if he suits up this week).

Defenses with Potential Running Back Correlations

New Orleans Running Backs with New Orleans Defense vs Atlanta: The addition of Mark Ingram means that this running backs group will get more collective volume. Since we know that we have a mountain to climb at the running back position this week with the Indianapolis score, playing this group vs Atlanta’s soft defense is one of the best chances we have to get close. If Taysom Hill is the full-blown starter at quarterback for New Orleans in the future, that will hurt the touchdown equity of this running backs group and likely limit their passing game volume. For this game, Trevor Siemian will be getting the start, which is a good thing for this running backs group in this matchup as it likely means more volume and scoring zone usage.

This is a classic type of let down spot for New Orleans who knocked off Tampa Bay last week, where they now get their primary rival Atlanta coming off a disappointing loss to Carolina. With that said, New Orleans defense has the second-best average score at the position to this point in the season and Atlanta’s wide receiver group is among the weakest in the league with Calvin Ridley sidelined. Whether they are paired with the New Orleans running backs or not, the New Orleans defense is a good play this week.